NBA betting: rivals week prop bets

NBA betting: rivals week prop bets


Rivals week continues in the NBA, and there are seven games on the NBA slate. There are two featured matchups on TNT, which includes the Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat, and Sacramento Kings vs. the Golden State Warriors. In other matchups, the Philadelphia 76ers will face the Indiana Pacers on the road. Starting at 10:30 p.m. ET, there will be a classic rival showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Chicago Bulls.

I have several recommended player props for today. For my picks, I took them all as straight bets, no more than 1 u on each. Here you will find the NBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Thursday, Jan. 25.

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Odds are current as of Jan. 25, at 4 p.m. ETSJ’s NBA Player Prop record this season: 16-13

NBA Bet #1: Steph Curry O 27.5 Points (-130) DK

Season Stats PPG: 26.8 | FG: 44.6 % | 3 PT: 40.1 % | FT: 92.6 % | REB: 4.2 | AST: 5 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 0.5

The Golden State Warriors (19-22) will host the Sacramento Kings (24-18) tonight at home. If you’re betting on the NBA, I have Warriors guard Steph Curry to score over 27.5 points tonight. At -130 odds on DraftKings, he has a prime matchup tonight against the Kings.

I wanted to initially bet the under tonight, until I saw his numbers against the Kings. A prop thats only hit 46 percent this season, Curry has six straight games under 27.5 points. He’s due, and this time Golden State gets home court advantage for rivals week.

Tonight, Curry gets the Kings, who allow the 20th most points per game (117.7), and 21 most assists (27.2). Similar to last season, they have trouble defending the perimeter, allowing teams to put up 13.4 three-pointers a game at 39 percent. Teams are shooting at a high clip against Sacramento (48.5 percent), and tonight they face one of the best shooters in the history of the NBA.

Statistics courtesy of Props.Cash

Historically, Curry’s balled out against Sacramento. What is there not to love about a rivals game that will be broadcasted on TNT this evening? In the last 14 meetings against the Kings, Curry has over 27.5 points in 11 of them, including 29 their last matchup. Over those 14 games, the guard averages 32.7 points against the Kings.

Hitting over points in 90 percent of his last ten matchups against them, Curry has a career average of 24.6 points in 45 career games against Sacramento. In three games against them this year, he’s putting up an incredible 30.3 points, on 46.9 percent three-point shooting. While the line is at 27.5, his average vs. the Kings is over three points above that tonight.

Sacramento ranks 21st defensively against point guards, allowing T.J. McConnell, Damian Lillard, Cameron Payne, Dejounte Murray, and Bogdan Bogdanovic to all hit over their points props this week. Although the line is cutting it close, Curry is putting up 27.1 points in 21 home games this season.

Although Curry is only averaging 24.5 points in the last ten games, his shot volume and minutes remain fairly steady. He’s coming off a 25 point performance against the Hawks, in which the guard shot 62.5 percent from the field. With Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, and Chris Paul all out with injuries, Curry doesn’t have much depth behind him at point guard. Expect Curry to go off tonight.

NBA Bet #2: John Collins O 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-115) DK

Season Stats PPG: 13.8 | FG: 49.9 % | 3 PT: 35.6 % | FT: 88.9 % | REB: 7.6 | AST: 1 | STL: 0.6 | BLK: 0.8

One of my favorite props to bet on this season is John Collins over points and rebounds. With a 76 percent hit rate on the season, the Jazz are on the rebound, despite losing three games in a row. Tonight the Jazz get the Washington Wizards, who are one of the least efficient teams on the defensive end.

The Wizards are in the basement as far as defensive ranks. They allow nearly the most points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage in the league. Coming off a 14 point, 9 rebound game against the Pelicans, he faces the Wizards, in which he put up a combined 26 points and rebounds last meeting.

Statistics courtesy of Props.Cash

Collins continues to hit over this prop, even with Clarkson and Sexton back in the lineup. While I’ve gotten the line as low as 16.5, I am confident at the current line of 19.5, especially given the matchup tonight. Averaging 27.5 minutes on the season, this prop has a hit rate of 76 percent when Collins plays those minutes or more.

Overall, Washington is poor defensively against centers, even with a matchup against Gafford and Kuzma. If you’re betting on the NBA over points and rebounds hit in 9 of 12 games so far in January. Behind Collins is Kelly Olynyk and Walker Kessler, who haven’t nearly been effective as Collins defensively as of late. While defense isn’t Collins strong suit, he’s been efficient on the boards and offensive end. In the last 10 games, he’s putting up a combined 21 points and rebounds.

This line should honestly be higher for Collins, who remains a solid starter and scorer for Utah Jazz. As the leading rebounder on this Jazz team, he’s been able to hit this prop, even in several games where he entered foul trouble. I’m going to keep betting on this prop until the wheels fall off. He should eat tonight, especially since the Wizards allow the second most paint points in the NBA.

NBA Bet #3: Kristaps Porzingis O 26.5 Points, Assists, and Rebounds (-110) DK

Season Stats PPG: 19.5 | FG: 52.5 % | 3 PT: 35 % | FT: 83.7 % | REB: 6.8 | AST: 2 | STL: 0.7 | BLK: 1.9

The Boston Celtics get another matchup with Eastern Conference rival Miami Heat on the road tonight. While it’s hard to bet on Boston props, I like the matchup for Kristaps Porzingis tonight.

A 56 percent hit rate this season, Porzingis over 26.5 points, rebounds, and assists has hit in three of the last five matchups, including two straight games against the Rockets and Nuggets. Tonight, he has a touch matchup against Bam Adebayo, in which the Heat allow only 110.5 points per game. Hitting four of the last six games, we can’t forget his history against Miami.

When I look at head-to-head matchups, I do take into account if the players were on different rosters. Although Porzingis was on the Wizards last year, he’s hit this prop in 75 percent of the last four matchups against Miami. In fact, he’s coming off 27 points and assists back in October against the Heat.

Statistics courtesy of Props.Cash

Red hot as of late, Porzingis has showed the Celtics he can step up when everyone else is struggling. Coming off several days rest, Porzingis poured in 32 points, 6 rebounds, and one assist against the Houston Rockets on Sunday. Well rested, I like this prop even better with him having the time to recover.

Coming off three-days rest, the Unicorn has a hit rate of 100 percent against the Raptors, Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets. The Celtics thrive on three point shooting, and should be able to drag Bam Adebayo outside the paint. Defensively, he should excel on the boards given Adebayo is strictly an inside big, and isn’t a threat from the perimeter.

Over the last month, Chet Holmgren, Alperen Sengün, and Wendell Carter Jr. all hit over points, rebounds, and assists. Even with the addition of Terry Rozier, the Heat are struggling, dropping four straight games straight. Porzingis is fresh off rest, and is in the midst of an incredible shooting month (43.6 percent from deep).

With Abebayo in the paint, the Heat force teams to shoot from outside. While they struggle to defend the perimeter at times, Porzingis excels very well in the two man game. Expect Porzingis to get a ton of outside looks when Tatum or someone else is double teamed. I’m going to ride the hot hand tonight, especially against a Miami team who allowed the Grizzlies to shoot nearly 50 percent from three.

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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